Thursday, November 19, 2009

We Are All Sub-Primates Now!

Sources now predict that the peak in housing foreclosures will peak somewhat later than first expected, coming sometime in 2011, instead of the last Q, 2010.

That's the good news. Calculated Risk collected the following from MBA:
On the MBA conference call concerning the "Q3 2009 National Delinquency Survey", MBA Chief Economist Jay Brinkmann said this morning:

The problem is moving to prime loans, including fixed rate prime loans, and also FHA loans. "We are seeing the first hit on the weaker prime fixed borrowers."

Remember the delinquency rate includes loans in modification (something to remember - especially for the 90 day delinquent loans).

MBA expects unemployment rate to peak in Q1 or Q2 2010, and delinquencies to peak sometime after the unemployment rate peaks.

Brinkmann expects foreclosures to possibly peak in 2011 (last quarter he said late 2010). He changed the forecast for two reasons: he expects unemployment to stay fairly high, and he thinks the prime borrowers will hang on before defaulting, and all the foreclosure moratoria will delay foreclosures - a longer trailing effect than usual.

Note: Many more questions this time!
He includes the requisite charts and graphs, on the suite, too

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